As the war in Ukraine intensifies, at the recent G20 Summit in Brazil Keir Starmer failed to address a direct question about the risks of nuclear war with Russia. The Trident nuclear weapons system together with the UK government’s consent for the stationing of US nuclear weapons in Britain makes us a target.
The Prime Minister and Defence Secretary continue to insist that the UK is ‘doubling down’ on support for Ukraine. Britain commits £3 billion a year; we are the third largest donor after the US and Germany. Keir Starmer says the UK will back Ukraine ‘for as long as it is needed’.
The decision by the UK government to allow Ukraine to fire long-range Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory, following a similar decision by the United States, is a reckless escalation in the conflict which has already lasted over 1000 days and cost countless lives. These decisions risk the spread of war across Europe with the potential for nuclear exchange.
President Putin considers an attack by Ukraine using weapons supplied by another state will be viewed by Russia as an attack by that third country. The Russian Ambassador to the UK has said he considers Britain to be ‘directly involved’ in the conflict. Russian nuclear doctrine has recently changed. The nuclear threat must not be underestimated.
While the majority of commentators continue to back the war, downplaying the possibility of its spread across Europe, public opinion is moving in the opposite direction. Support for a negotiated settlement to end the war in Ukraine is growing in both the United States and West Europe.
A large-scale survey in June this year by the US Institute for Global Affairs, for example, found two in every three Americans and Western Europeans wanted their government to avoid escalation and prevent further suffering of the Ukrainian people more than they wanted to deter Russia or see the restoration of Ukraine’s borders.
The dramatic population decline in war-torn Ukraine reveals the extent of their suffering – the combined result of battlefield and civilian deaths, a drop in the birth rate, and the exodus of refugees. In February 2022, the population of Ukraine was 43 million. It is an estimated 35 million today
More than 20,000 men are believed to have fled Ukraine to avoid military service. Conscription has been described as ‘chaotic’ and ‘tarnished by corruption’. In April Ukraine introduced a controversial new law lowering the draft age and introduced stringent penalties for evasion.
The people of Russia have also been hard hit. The Pentagon estimates there are more than 600,000 Russian casualties of war. While sanctions have not had the impact the Nato allies were hoping for, present estimates
put the cost of war for Russia at between $500 million to $1 billion. It is reported that Russia spends approximately one third of its GDP on the war effort.
The spread of war across Europe and the potential for nuclear confrontation can only be averted if the war is ended by a negotiated settlement. The outstanding question is how long that will take and how many more deaths there will be in the meantime.